Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
For the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons, we currently expect growth of more than 1% to 96.5 million units in 2018.
In 2018, we again expect Asia to generate the largest absolute growth in production volumes. In our estimation, India, South Korea and Iran in particular should record rises in production volumes. We also currently consider it likely that China’s production will be slightly higher than the previous year’s record level, while we expect a slight decline in Japan. For Asia as a whole, we anticipate a 2% rise in production to around 52.5 million units. We expect passenger-car production in Europe to grow by 2% in 2018. In Western Europe, apart from the United Kingdom, we anticipate stable development of domestic demand. However, the higher euro exchange rate is likely to result in lower export figures. In Eastern Europe, passengercar demand and production are expected to keep recovering. In contrast, demand is expected to continue to cool off in North America, where we consider a 2% decline in production to be probable. In South America, we expect production to increase by 8% as a result of the economic recovery.
Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles
We estimate that global production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons will fall short of the previous year’s level in 2018.
After the sharp rise in the previous year, we expect a considerable decline in production in China in 2018. As a result, we expect a 5% decrease in production in Asia. In contrast, the expected economic development in most countries is likely to lead to rising demand and increasing production. We expect production to increase by 2% in Europe and 9% in North America. We currently anticipate growth of 10% for South America.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
The positive trend in demand for replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons is expected to continue in all regions in 2018. On a global level, we expect demand to increase by 3%.
The Asian market is expected to contribute around 60% of this with growth of 5%. As in previous years, this will be driven primarily by rising demand in China as a result of the further growth in vehicle numbers. Demand will also grow in India, Indonesia and South Korea. In Europe, we expect an increase in demand for replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Eastern Europe in particular in 2018, which is likely to cause sales volumes in Europe as a whole to increase by 2%. Demand in North America is set to recover again after the stagnation in 2017 and increase by 2% in 2018, partly as a result of the continuing rise in mileage. In South America, we currently expect tire sales volumes to increase by 4%.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
Thanks to the growing economy, global demand for replacement tires for commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons is likely to continue increasing in all regions and to rise by over 2% overall in 2018.
Asia is likely to account for nearly half the expected increase in demand. As a result of rising transport volumes, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles to increase by 2%. We also currently expect sales volumes to increase by 2% in Europe. At present, we consider 3% growth in demand in North America to be realistic. In South America, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles to go up by 5%.
|Forecast for vehicle production|
|of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in millions of units||of medium and heavy commercial vehicles in thousands of units|
|Forecast for sales volumes in the tire-replacement business|
|for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in millions of units||for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in millions of units|