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2018 Annual Report

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2018 Annual Report

Continental Corporation - 2018 Annual Report
 

Forecast for Key Customer Sectors

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Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
For the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons, we currently expect production volumes in 2019 to be at the previous year’s level of 94 million units.

In the first half of 2019, there is likely to be a decline in global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, which should be compensated by production increases in the second half of the year along with lower prior-year figures. In our estimation, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Russia in particular are likely to record rises in production volumes. We expect the production volume in Europe to remain at the previous year’s level, as the effects from the introduction of the WLTP emissions testing procedure will also impact the first half of 2019 in our view. In North America, we expect production to be at the previous year’s level. While Mexico is likely to record growth in production, we anticipate declining volumes in Canada and the U.S.A. We also expect production in Asia to remain at the previous year’s level. This is due mainly to the development of demand in China and the effects of the Chinese government’s purchase incentive program. In South America, we expect production to increase by 4% as a result of the anticipated economic recovery.

Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles
According to our estimates, global production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons will go down 1% year-on-year in 2019.

We expect production in China and India to decline. As a result, we expect a 3% fall in production in Asia. For Western Europe, we anticipate generally modest demand and a slight decrease in production volumes, although this should be more than compensated by stronger demand in Russia and in other Eastern European countries. Following the strong growth in North America in the previous year and the recent decline in incoming orders, we expect production volumes here to stagnate. By contrast, the continuing economic recovery in South America should lead to a 10% increase in production here.

Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
The positive trend in demand for replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons is expected to continue in all regions in 2019. On a global level, we anticipate an increase of 2%.

The Asian market is expected to contribute around half of this with projected growth of 3%. This will probably be driven mainly by increasing demand in China as a result of further growth in vehicle numbers and replenishment of stocks. Demand is also likely to grow in India, Indonesia and South Korea. In Europe, we expect a 2% increase in demand for replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2019. We anticipate continued strong growth rates for Russia in particular. In our view, demand in North America will likely increase by 2% in 2019. In South America, we also currently expect a 2% increase in sales volumes of replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.

Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
Thanks to the growing world economy, global demand for replacement tires for commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons is likely to continue increasing and to rise by 2% overall in 2019.

Asia is likely to account for the majority of the anticipated increase in demand. We expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles to increase by 2% in this region as a result of rising transport volumes and the replenishment of stocks in China. In Europe, we anticipate a 2% rise in sales volumes of replacement tires. In North America, we consider a slowdown in the positive trend to 2% to be realistic. In South America, we also expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles to go up by 2%.

Forecast for vehicle production
  of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in millions of units of medium and heavy commercial vehicles in thousands of units
  2019 2018 2019 2018
Europe 21.7 21.7 663 663
North America 17.0 17.0 638 638
South America 3.6 3.4 170 155
Asia 50.5 50.6 2,170 2,240
Other markets 1.3 1.3 0 0
Worldwide 94.0 94.0 3,641 3,695
Forecast for sales volumes in the tire-replacement business
  for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in millions of units for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in millions of units
  2019 2018 2019 2018
Europe 364 358 26.3 25.8
North America 301 296 27.0 26.5
South America 68 67 15.1 14.8
Asia 465 450 89.0 87.0
Other markets 50 49 8.0 7.9
Worldwide 1,248 1,220 165.4 162.0
Download Tabellenübersicht (MS-Excel)

Sources:
Vehicle production: IHS Inc. (Europe with Western, Central, and Eastern Europe incl. Russia and Turkey; Asia incl. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Middle East and Oceania with Australia).
Tire replacement business: LMC International Ltd.
Preliminary figures and own estimates.

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Learn more about this and get networked with our online magazine.
Learn more about this and get networked with our online magazine.